India's cotton supply outlook has weakened as the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised down its 2024–25 production estimate by 4 lakh bales, bringing the total to 291.30 lakh bales (each bale weighing 170 kg). The reduction is mainly attributed to lower yields in Maharashtra, indicating persistent supply disruptions. By the end of March 2025, total cotton availability in the country is estimated at 306.83 lakh bales, which includes 25 lakh bales of imports and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales. The total closing stock as of March stood at 127.83 lakh bales, out of which 27 lakh bales were held by textile mills, and the remaining 100.83 lakh bales were with the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Maharashtra Federation, and traders. Surge in Imports, Drop in Exports: Owing to the domestic shortfall, cotton imports are expected to double to 33 lakh bales in 2024–25, up from 15.20 lakh bales in the previous season. Meanwhile, exports are projected to decline sharply to 16 lakh bales, compared to 28.36 lakh bales last year. Global Outlook: According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), despite increased cotton production in China, global output is expected to fall by 69,000 bales, primarily due to lower output in Argentina and Côte d'Ivoire. Additionally, global cotton consumption is estimated to decline by 520,000 bales.