The Uttar Pradesh government has announced a State Advised Price (SAP) of ₹400 per quintal for sugarcane procurement for the 2025–26 season, marking a significant increase for sugar mills. At the same time, market discussions suggest that the central government may soon permit the export of up to 1 million tonnes of sugar. Combined with a 9% reduction in the November domestic sales quota, these developments are expected to exert upward pressure on sugar prices in the near term. However, industry stakeholders have avoided commenting on price projections, indicating that production estimates for the 2025–26 sugar season will be reviewed after a week. The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has urged the government to allow exports of at least 2 million tonnes, emphasizing that a lower ethanol quota for molasses-based distilleries has compelled mills to focus on sugar production instead of diverting cane juice for ethanol. A high-level ministerial committee led by Union Home Minister Amit Shah is expected to decide on the export proposal next week. During the 2024–25 season, which ended on September 30, mills exported around 0.8 million tonnes of sugar against an approved limit of 1 million tonnes. When surplus stocks are available, the government typically allows exports through mill-wise quota allocations. Experts have also called for a revision in the Minimum Selling Price (MSP) of sugar, which has remained unchanged at ₹31 per kilogram since February 2019. They argue that the MSP should be raised to ₹40 per kilogram, in line with the rising Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) of sugarcane, which has increased by 29% to ₹355 per quintal. Based on the current FRP, the production cost of sugar has reached ₹40.24 per kilogram, and it is expected to rise further following the SAP revision in Uttar Pradesh. As per Supreme Court guidelines, sugar mills are obligated to procure sugarcane at the SAP fixed by the state government, which places additional cost pressure on producers. With rising input costs and limited ethanol diversion, the sector anticipates tighter margins unless export permissions and MSP adjustments are implemented promptly.