Wheat market forecasts we had shared have proven to be accurate. We had mentioned that there would be a slight rise in prices during the off-season, but no major surge was expected. And just as predicted, despite the suspension of the weekly e-auction under the OMSCS scheme by the FCI, Delhi saw a mild increase of ₹25 last week, with prices closing at ₹2800 on Saturday. In other markets, prices reached ₹2615 in Narela, ₹2600 in Dabra, ₹2570 in Gorakhpur, ₹2560 in Gonda, and ₹2461 in Mainpuri per quintal. Additionally, there was a ₹10 increase in prices in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. In Delhi, the daily arrival remained steady at 5-6 thousand bags, while arrivals in several markets in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh were significantly low. Due to wheat prices remaining around or below the MSP of ₹2585 per quintal, millers and processors showed little interest in the high reserve-priced government wheat. This led to only 36-40% of the 2 lakh tonnes offered under OMSCS being sold, prompting FCI to suspend the auction. By December 5, the wheat sowing area had increased to 241.40 lakh hectares, up 11% compared to last year’s corresponding period of 217.80 lakh hectares. Sowing has almost been completed in Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh, while sowing continues at a good pace in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, and eastern Uttar Pradesh. Farmers are planting with confidence, thanks to favorable moisture, weather, and high water levels. On the global front, the outlook remained bearish, with global wheat production expected to increase by around 8 million tonnes, and global ending stocks forecast to reach 274.87 million tonnes. Additionally, Russia has suspended its export duty and Argentina has reduced its export tax, strengthening the supply side. Overall, if the central government does not allow wheat exports, there is unlikely to be a significant rise in prices, even in the off-season. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range of ₹40-50 till the end of December.