United States Wheat Outlook The outlook for U.S. wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year reflects modestly larger supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks compared with the previous month. Beginning stocks are increased by 4 million bushels, based on revisions from the latest NASS Grain Stocks report. Domestic feed and residual use is lowered by 20 million bushels to 100 million bushels, reflecting smaller-than-expected first-quarter disappearance and residual use indicated in the same report. Seed use is reduced by 1 million bushels to 61 million bushels, partly informed by the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Exports remain unchanged at 900 million bushels, although there are offsetting changes among wheat classes. As a result of higher supplies and lower domestic use, projected ending stocks are increased by 25 million bushels to 926 million, representing an 8 percent increase from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered by $0.10 per bushel to $4.90, reflecting larger stocks and continued price pressure. Global Outlook The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 points to higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared with the previous projection. World wheat supplies are raised by 4.3 million tons to 1,102.2 million tons, primarily due to higher production estimates for Argentina and Russia, which more than offset a reduction for Turkey. With more than 90 percent of Argentina’s wheat harvest complete, production is raised by 3.5 million tons to a record 27.5 million tons, nearly 50 percent higher than the previous year. Russia’s production forecast is also increased by 2.0 million tons to 89.5 million tons, supported by higher preliminary yields reported by Rosstat. Global wheat consumption is increased by 0.9 million tons to 823.9 million tons, driven mainly by higher usage in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco. World wheat trade is projected up 1.1 million tons to 219.8 million tons, as increased exports from Argentina and Kazakhstan are only partially offset by lower export forecasts for the European Union and Ukraine. Projected global ending stocks are raised by 3.4 million tons to 278.3 million tons, with most of the increase attributed to larger stocks in Russia and Argentina.