Southwest Monsoon Covers Entire India; Heavy Rainfall Continues Across Several States

The Southwest Monsoon has now covered the entire country, reaching all parts of India on July 9, just one day later than its normal date of July 8. During the first week of July, the monsoon advanced rapidly across Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, bringing widespread rainfall to large parts of the country. The week was dominated by the seasons first Depression, which formed over the northwest Bay of Bengal on July 5. The system moved inland through Odisha, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh before weakening into a well-marked low-pressure area. Its movement triggered widespread rainfall across eastern and central India. Several regions experienced heavy to extremely heavy rainfall during the week. Odisha, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat, Saurashtra & Kutch, Karnataka and parts of Madhya Pradesh recorded intense rainfall, while heavy showers were also reported from Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Assam, Meghalaya and other northeastern states. During the week ending July 8, Central India received 137% above-normal rainfall. Northwest India recorded 18% above-normal rainfall, while the South Peninsula received 6% above-normal rainfall. In contrast, East and Northeast India recorded 46% below-normal rainfall. Overall, the country received 45% above-normal weekly rainfall. Despite the active spell, cumulative monsoon rainfall from June 1 to July 8 remains 15% below the Long Period Average (LPA). Central India is currently the only broad region with above-normal seasonal rainfall, while East and Northeast India continue to experience a significant rainfall deficit. Looking ahead, a fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over the northwest Bay of Bengal, with the possibility of a new low-pressure area forming during the middle of July. This system is expected to sustain rainfall activity across eastern, central and parts of northern India. During the coming week, light to moderate rainfall is expected over most parts of East India, Northeast India, the Northwest Plains, Peninsular India, the West Coast and the Western Himalayan region. Isolated areas are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall, while thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds are expected across several parts of the country. Large-scale climate indicators continue to show weak El NiƱo conditions over the equatorial Pacific, with forecasts suggesting gradual strengthening during the remainder of the Southwest Monsoon season. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral phase and is expected to stay neutral in the coming weeks. The recent spell of rainfall has improved soil moisture and reservoir levels across many agricultural regions. However, with seasonal rainfall still below normal, the progress of the Kharif crop season will largely depend on the consistency of rainfall during the second half of July. Farmers and commodity markets will continue to closely monitor the development of new weather systems over the Bay of Bengal.

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