Despite a massive influx exceeding 3 lakh bags of new crop arrivals across Gujarat mandis�including 1.75 to 2.00 lakh bags in Saurashtra and over 1.00 lakh bags in North Gujarat�groundnut physical markets continue to display unexpected resilience. Rather than triggering the typical seasonal price slump, market fundamentals show that aggressive procurement by crushing mills, persistent demand for bold kernel grades, and tight availability of export-quality stock are supporting firm price levels. Key Mandi benchmarks highlight this underlying strength: Junagadh 441 New is quoting at ₹34,500 per quintal, Rajkot 39 Number Super is fetching ₹8,000 to ₹8,575 per quintal, and Halvad mandi rates have reached up to ₹8,780 per quintal. A primary driver behind this supply-demand gap is the significant crop damage reported in neighboring Madhya Pradesh following erratic monsoon patterns during critical maturation stages. Fearing compromised kernel size, lower test weight, and yield reductions in MP, buyers and processors are concentrating their sourcing in Gujarat mandis to secure premium-grade lots. This regional reallocation of buyer demand is absorbing heavy local arrivals and keeping spot prices insulated against severe volume-driven downside pressures. On the international front, Indian export quotes remain steady, lending further buoyancy to domestic valuations. Free on Board (FOB) rates at Gondal and New Delhi range between �1.04 and �1.28 per kg (approximately ₹110.50 to ₹136.00 per kg based on current exchange rates). Specifically, New Delhi Java (50�60 count) leads export realizations at �1.28 per kg (₹136.00/kg), while New Delhi Bold (50�60 count) is holding at �1.04 per kg (₹110.50/kg). Although competing origins like Brazil�quoting raw groundnuts at �1.26 per kg (₹133.80/kg)�present mild headwinds, consistent overseas orders for Indian bold and Java varieties are reinforcing market confidence. Market experts advise agricultural stakeholders to tailor their operational strategies to current supply dynamics. Farmers are encouraged to avoid panic selling average or lower-grade lots; drying and holding premium, bold-grade crops can yield higher returns, as millers and exporters continue to offer sizeable quality premiums. Traders should maintain balanced risk exposure�while localized spot shortages of high-count nuts favor short-term price rallies, the ongoing stream of daily arrivals alongside subdued domestic edible oil sentiment could cap aggressive upside moves in standard-grade supplies.