Maize Market Outlook: New Ethanol Policy Could Boost Industrial Demand
Changes in ethanol procurement policy could create fresh opportunities for the domestic maize market. According to the report, restrictions on ethanol made from sugarcane juice, sugar syrup and B-heavy molasses for ESY 2026�27 may increase the focus on maize-based ethanol. An ethanol procurement tender of around 11 billion litres has reportedly been issued for the period. If maize-based ethanol production and procurement expand, the additional demand could provide support to domestic maize prices and improve buying interest from industrial consumers. Apart from ethanol manufacturers, the poultry, starch and animal-feed industries are major consumers of maize. The report estimates that maize consumption for ethanol production could rise from 13 million tonnes in ESY 2025�26 to 16 million tonnes in ESY 2026�27. Meanwhile, total domestic maize demand is projected to increase from approximately 49�50 million tonnes in 2026 to 55.7 million tonnes in 2027. If these projections materialise, the balance between supply and consumption could become an important factor influencing market prices. Production trends will also play a crucial role in determining the markets direction. The report puts maize production in 2025 at around 55 million tonnes and estimates a possible decline of 8 million tonnes in 2026. If production falls while demand from ethanol plants and the poultry industry increases, maize prices could receive additional support. However, better-than-expected output, higher mandi arrivals, imports or weakness in international prices could limit the upside. Therefore, the projected increase in demand should be assessed alongside actual production figures and procurement trends. In the coming months, market participants should closely monitor ethanol plant purchases, government tender conditions, fresh crop arrivals, moisture levels, grain quality and demand from the poultry industry. Comparing local mandi prices with industrial buying rates and storage costs will also be important when evaluating market opportunities. If industrial consumption rises as expected and the projected production shortfall persists, maize prices could find stronger support in 2027. However, a sustained rally is not guaranteed, and the markets direction will ultimately depend on actual supply, demand, government policy and international price movements.