Forecast of Price Increase for Small Cardamom Due to Festive Demand

Due to adverse weather conditions and natural calamities in Kerala this year, there is an anticipated sharp decline in the production of small (green) cardamom, and the harvesting and processing of the new crop has been significantly delayed. Kerala is the leading producer of small cardamom in India. Experts indicate that during the pre-monsoon season from February to May, there was a lack of rainfall, followed by heavy rains in July-August. This has caused substantial damage to the crops. Some analysts are predicting a drastic reduction in production, possibly up to 50% compared to last year. Typically, the harvesting and processing of new cardamom begins by late June or early July and picks up pace by mid-July. However, this year, harvesting has either been negligible or non-existent until the end of August. Now that the arrival of the new crop is beginning, there is an expectation of price increases. Despite predictions of prices possibly soaring to 3200-3500 rupees per kilogram due to the anticipated production decline, there is no significant sign of such an increase yet. Reasons include the existing stock in consumption centers and difficulties faced by dealers from northern India in reaching Kerala due to heavy rains. Additionally, export demand for cardamom is not very strong. However, with the onset of the festive season, prices might see an upward trend. Currently, the prices in producer centers are between 2100-2500 rupees per kilogram.

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