As of December 31, India has produced 9.6 million tons of net sugar, compared to 11.3 million tons at the same time last year. i) In Uttar Pradesh, net sugar production was 3.3 million tons, compared to 3.4 million tons last year (a 4% decrease compared to the previous year). ii) In Maharashtra, net sugar production was 3.0 million tons, compared to 3.8 million tons last year (a 21% decrease compared to the previous year). iii) In Karnataka, net sugar production was 2.0 million tons, compared to 2.5 million tons last year (an 18% decrease compared to the previous year). Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka are responsible for approximately 80% of India's sugarcane production. The sugarcane yield in these three states has been lower than expected and is also disappointing compared to the previous year. i) Maharashtra and Karnataka were affected by prolonged rainfall, which negatively impacted the flowering process of sugarcane, resulting in lower cane yield and sugar content. ii) In Uttar Pradesh, the Co-238 variety of sugarcane, which represents 45% of the area, has been affected by a significant red rot disease outbreak and top pest infestation, negatively impacting cane performance (yield and sucrose content). There has been a reduction in the total sugarcane area in most states, especially in Maharashtra (-17%) and Karnataka (-5%). As a result, our current estimate for gross sugar production for the 2024/25 Indian crop is now around 30.8 million tons, which is 3.5 million tons lower than last year and 1.7 million tons lower than our previous estimate. When 4.5 million tons of sugar are allocated for ethanol production, the result will be a net sugar production of 26.3 million tons (compared to 32.0 million tons last year), which will be below the estimated domestic sales of 29.2 million tons. In this scenario, the stocks available by October 31, 2025, are expected to be just 2.4 million tons, which is barely enough for one month of consumption. (It is important to note that the crushing season starts in mid-November, so the ending stocks should be considered as of October 31).