There are several factors are currently influencing the mustard market, and traders, stockists, and large farmers need to closely monitor these developments as they may determine the market’s direction in the coming days. The first major factor is the production estimates that have emerged from the recent mustard seminar. According to information available from different sources at the seminar, production estimates vary. Overall, mustard production is being projected in the range of 10 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes (100–120 lakh tonnes). In comparison, the government’s official estimate for 2026 stands higher at 13.3 million tonnes (133 lakh tonnes). Another important factor affecting the market is the geopolitical tension involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. The ongoing conflict has so far prevented the mustard market from weakening. Due to disruptions in shipping routes and rising crude oil prices, the cost of imported edible oils has increased, which has provided support to domestic mustard prices. Market analysts believe that if a ceasefire situation emerges in the coming period, mustard prices could decline by around ₹200–₹300 per quintal. However, if the conflict continues for a longer period and crude oil prices rise further, the downside in prices may remain limited. At present, the seasonal bottom for mustard in Jaipur is unlikely to fall below ₹6500 per quintal. Unseasonal weather is also becoming an important factor. The mustard harvesting season is currently underway, and reports of rain and hailstorms have emerged from several mustard-producing regions since yesterday. This situation could affect production and may also delay harvesting, both of which may support the market. Meanwhile, mustard arrivals in mandis are another key factor that will influence price movements. Historically, peak arrivals are usually recorded between March 15 and March 22. During the previous season, the highest arrivals were seen on March 20, when the market received around 1.6 million bags (16 lakh bags). This year as well, peak arrivals are expected to occur around the same period. Experts say that mustard prices will largely depend on how many days arrivals remain above 1.5 million bags (15 lakh bags). This figure is considered an important indicator for estimating the overall production. Under the current circumstances, the market trend appears balanced. If the situation remains unchanged, mustard prices in Jaipur are not expected to fall below ₹6500 per quintal. Traders or stockists planning to build inventory may consider buying around March 20 at these levels. Farmers holding large quantities of mustard may also consider selling part of their stock, as a major price rally is not expected in the near term. However, experts caution that developments related to the ongoing conflict and weather conditions can change rapidly. Therefore, market participants are advised to trade carefully and stay updated with all major news related to the war and weather conditions.