The wheat market witnessed significant volatility over the past week. Prices surged sharply at the beginning of the week but showed some cooling by the end. Today as well, the market has opened with a mild upward trend. Earlier indications had already suggested that prices were likely to move gradually higher. Arrivals in mandis remained strong throughout the week. Government agencies, along with flour millers, were actively purchasing, while farmers and stockists continued to hold back their produce. In Delhi, prices rose to ₹2700 per quintal during the week but, after fluctuations, settled at ₹2655 on Saturday and have opened again at ₹2675 today. Prices are nearly at the same level as the corresponding period last year. In other key markets, rates stood at ₹2500 in Najafgarh, ₹2600 in Itarsi (up by ₹100), ₹2800 in Bengaluru, ₹2535 in Jabalpur, ₹2450 in Nagpur, ₹2725 in Kolkata, and ₹2770 per quintal in Hyderabad. Meanwhile, Shahjahanpur and Mainpuri recorded a slight decline of ₹10–30. The primary driver of market movement was the gap between the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of ₹2585 and prevailing mandi rates. As long as this gap remained wide, bullish momentum continued; however, as prices moved closer to MSP, the market slowed down. Buyers from southern and western India remained consistently active, as they need to replenish pipeline stocks, making a sharp decline unlikely in the near term. On the other hand, stockists who had purchased at lower levels are now engaging in profit booking. Government procurement started off slowly this season. As of April 20, only 114.29 lakh tonnes had been procured against arrivals of 157.88 lakh tonnes across the country, which is lower than last year’s pace. However, procurement has picked up somewhat after relaxation in quality norms. Quality has emerged as a major concern this year, prompting the government to ease standards in several states. Wheat with up to 50% discolouration and 15% broken grains is now being accepted. On the export front, the government has increased the quota to 5 million tonnes, but India is currently not competitive in the global market. Indian wheat is priced at $265–270 per tonne, while supplies from Russia and Ukraine are available at a lower range of $230–240 per tonne. As a result, India is not the preferred supplier globally at the moment, although limited exports to neighboring countries such as Nepal and Bangladesh may continue. The production outlook also remains uncertain. One survey estimates output at 110.65 million tonnes, but trade sources believe actual production may fall short of this figure. The government has raised its procurement target to 34.5 million tonnes. Including an existing stock of 22 million tonnes, total availability could reach around 56.5 million tonnes, with closing stocks estimated at 30–35 million tonnes by the end of the season. Overall, the market is currently in a balanced phase—neither strongly bullish nor bearish. In the short term, prices are expected to move within a limited range, but the longer-term trend appears firm. Last year, the market reached a high of ₹2885 per quintal, and there are indications that this level could be surpassed this time, as supply constraints, quality issues, and government procurement are all preventing prices from sustaining lower levels.