Higher Arrivals Pressure Maize Market, Strong Demand Limits Major Downside

The maize market is currently witnessing a mixed trend. On one hand, increasing arrivals are putting pressure on the upper side of the market, while on the other, strong demand is preventing any major decline in prices. Over the last two days, clear weather conditions and higher supply from the Bihar line have led maize prices at Gulabbagh mandi to soften by around ₹10, reaching nearly ₹2030 per quintal. Daily arrivals at the mandi were reported at approximately 4,000 tonnes. Weakness was also seen at Bihar stock points, where prices declined by ₹30 to around ₹2090 per quintal, while rack point rates fell by nearly ₹20 to ₹1940 per quintal. In other major markets, maize prices were reported at ₹2200 in Delhi, ₹2100 in Chhindwara, ₹2100 at Tirupati Starch Plant Indore, ₹2070 in Dewas, and ₹2135 per quintal in Sangli. At present, the biggest pressure on the market is coming from the simultaneous arrival of the new crop from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. This year, the supply gap between the two states has narrowed significantly, which may increase maize availability in North India between May 15 and June 15. In South India, total production in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana is estimated at around 5.2 million tonnes. Out of this, nearly 80 percent of Andhra Pradesh’s crop of around 3 million tonnes is still believed to be yet to arrive in the market. On the other hand, due to heavy rainfall in Bihar and West Bengal, production estimates have been reduced to around 5.7 million tonnes, with discussions of nearly 5 percent crop damage. A shift in procurement strategy is also being observed in the ethanol sector. Due to higher maize prices, several distilleries are increasing the use of broken rice instead of maize, which has slightly limited industrial demand. Additionally, the government’s decision to release an extra 2 million tonnes of rice for ethanol production, along with the possibility of releasing around 4 lakh tonnes of government maize and sorghum stocks in Telangana, has also helped keep the market balanced. However, demand from the poultry and feed sectors remains strong. Consumption in Eastern India is expected to increase by 7 to 10 percent, where monthly demand is estimated at around 7.5 lakh tonnes. Demand for good-quality maize continues to remain firm, and large processing plants are still purchasing at previous price levels. Maize for Karnal and Jodhpur delivery is currently trading up to ₹2250 per quintal. On the export front, parity issues continue in the Bangladesh trade at present, but exports of 5 to 7 lakh tonnes of maize through rail and road routes are expected over the next four months. According to Mandi Market Media, if domestic prices decline by another ₹75 to ₹100 per quintal, Indian maize could once again become competitive in the export market. For this reason, the ₹1900 per quintal level is being considered a strong support level. International markets are currently offering limited support, although US corn exports are running 28 percent higher compared to last year. In Brazil, crop estimates have been slightly reduced due to cyclones and floods. Additionally, South Korea’s recent purchase of 1.36 lakh tonnes of corn has provided some support to global markets. Overall, despite pressure from increasing arrivals, the possibility of a major decline in the maize market is currently considered limited due to weather-related risks, firm demand for better quality maize, and stable consumption from the feed industry. If rainfall increases in the coming days, the market may receive fresh support. Pressure on the market may continue during May, but there remains strong potential for improvement in the period ahead. Traders are advised to conduct business at their own discretion.

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