Soybean Market Shows Limited Recovery, But Major Rally Still Unlikely
The soybean market witnessed a limited recovery on Monday after prices briefly slipped below the key support level of ₹7,350 and touched around ₹7,250. Buying interest at lower levels helped prices rebound, with spot markets in Solapur trading around ₹7,400 per quintal, while Latur, Nanded, and Hingoli quoted prices in the ₹7,350�7,380 range. Despite the recovery, overall market sentiment remains cautious. Across physical markets, soybean prices continued to trade under pressure. Maharashtra markets were largely quoted between ₹6,800 and ₹6,850 per quintal, while Madhya Pradesh markets remained in the ₹6,700�6,900 range. Indore prices eased by ₹100 to ₹6,900, and Washim declined by ₹200 to ₹6,800, indicating that domestic demand is yet to provide strong support. Processing plant quotations showed mixed movement. Prestige increased its soybean purchase price to ₹7,000 per quintal, up by ₹125, while Dhanka and Dissan also raised rates modestly. AVIS kept its buying price unchanged at ₹7,000 per quintal, suggesting selective buying by crushers rather than broad-based demand. In the edible oil segment, soybean oil prices recorded only a limited improvement. Kandla soybean oil was quoted at ₹1,415 per 10 kg, Mumbai at ₹1,460, and Haldia at ₹1,425. Internationally, CBOT July soybean oil futures settled 0.69% higher at 71.30 cents per pound. However, Malaysian palm oil futures fell from 4,636 to 4,536 ringgit, keeping the global vegetable oil market sentiment mixed. Soybean DOC (de-oiled cake) prices remained under pressure despite isolated gains. Dissan Dhulia quoted DOC at ₹59,500 per tonne after a ₹500 increase, while Om Shri Dhulia saw a ₹500 decline to the same level. Dhanraj Latur remained steady at ₹57,500 per tonne, indicating that export and feed demand continue to be subdued. Fundamentally, the market is being supported by relatively lower domestic stocks, but adequate global supplies and the arrival of the new crop in the coming months are limiting the possibility of a sharp rally. As of the end of May, soybean stocks were estimated at around 3.736 million tonnes, nearly 13.8% lower than a year earlier. Imports also declined by around 9%, while crushing activity was down by nearly 11%, offering only limited support to prices. On the sowing front, soybean acreage remained significantly below normal, with only about 1.30 lakh hectares planted by 19 June. Market participants expect sowing to accelerate if favourable rainfall continues over the next seven to ten days. A faster pace of planting could increase expectations of a better crop, which may keep prices under pressure in the medium term. Geopolitical developments also remain an important factor. Ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States continue to support crude oil prices. Any escalation could strengthen vegetable oil markets and indirectly provide additional support to soybean prices. From a technical perspective, ₹7,350 remains the immediate support level, while ₹7,750 is seen as the major resistance. Analysts believe any upward move is likely to face selling pressure, and they recommend booking profits on rallies rather than making aggressive fresh purchases. The ₹7,200 level will be important to watch, as a break below it could trigger further weakness in the market.