India basmati price slump may continue on fall in exports, big crop.

Basmati rice has been India's premium offering to the world with the grain having a sizeable export market. But with exports to Iran falling, prices of the grain have slumped. Iran accounts for one-third of India's basmati exports, hence this fall, coupled with a larger crop this year, has led to a 30% drop in prices of the Indian basmati. Prices have slumped to 2,650-2,700 rupees per 100 kg, compared with 3,500-3,600 rupees in the year ago period. Industry sources expect prices to fall further, at least in the short term, as arrivals start picking up. And according to market participants, prices could fall as much as 500 rupees per 100 kg more in the next five to six weeks. During Apr-Aug, Iran imported 496,907 tn basmati rice from India, nearly 27% lower on year, according to Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority. Iran bought about 1.3 mln tn basmati from India in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar). According to APEDA, during Apr-Aug, India's basmati exports fell 10% on year to 1.67 mln tn. Due to uncertainties with Iran, overall basmati exports are likely to fall by about 10% this year. Besides the fall in exports, a larger crop this year is also expected to add to the woes of basmati rice traders. Area under basmati paddy rose 31% on year to 1.9 mln ha in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun), according to a crop survey report published by the government agency. The output in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) is expected to rise 15% on year to 5.7 mln tn.

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