A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the Western Himalayan region, resulting in light/moderate rainfall at isolated to scattered places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday. With north-easterly winds setting in over the Bay of Bengal and South Peninsular India, the Northeast Monsoon rains have already arrived in southeast peninsular India. Meanwhile, a cyclonic circulation (CC) over the southwest Bay of Bengal off the Sri Lanka coast is likely to be almost stagnant for the next several days. Furthermore, a trough runs above the CC to the southeast of the Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast. Under the influence of the above systems, heavy rainfall is possible in some areas of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe during this period. Heavy downpours may occur today over isolated areas of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.